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Vitalik新文:从预测市场到信息金融 Polymarket为何让我兴奋

本文阅读 18 分钟

原标题:From prediction markets to info finance

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作者:Vitalik,以太坊创始人;编译:0xjs@金色财经

摘要:选举预测只是第一个应用。更广泛的概念是,你可以使用金融作为一种协调激励机制的方式,以便为观众提供有价值的信息。

最让我兴奋的以太坊应用之一是预测市场。2014年,我撰写了一篇关于futarchy 的文章,这是 Robin Hanson 构想的一种基于预测的治理模型。早在 2015 年,我就是Augur的活跃用户和支持者(看,我的名字在维基百科文章中)。我在 2020 年大选投注中赚了 58,000 美元。今年,我一直是 Polymarket 的密切支持者和追随者。

对于许多人来说,预测市场就是对选举下注,而对选举下注就是赌博——如果它能让人们享受乐趣,那就太好了,但从根本上讲,它并不比在 pump.fun 上购买随机代币更有趣。从这个角度来看,我对预测市场的兴趣似乎令人困惑。因此,在这篇文章中,我旨在解释这个概念让我兴奋的原因。简而言之,我相信 (i) 即使现存的预测市场对世界来说也是一个非常有用的工具,但此外 (ii)预测市场只是一个更大、非常强大的类别的一个例子,它有潜力创造更好的社交媒体、科学、新闻、治理和其他领域的实现。我将把这个类别称为“信息金融(info finance)”。

Polymarket的两面性:为参与者提供的押注网站,为其他所有人提供的新闻网站
在过去的一周中,Polymarket 一直是有关美国大选的非常有效的信息来源。Polymarket 不仅预测特朗普获胜的几率为 60/40(而其他消息来源的预测为 50/50,这本身并不太令人印象深刻),还展示了其他优点:当结果出来时,尽管许多专家和新闻来源一直在引诱观众,希望他们能听到对哈里斯有利的消息,但 Polymarket 却直接揭示了真相:特朗普获胜的几率超过 95%,同时夺取所有政府部门控制权的几率超过 90%。

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两张截图均拍摄于美国东部时间11月6日凌晨 3:40

但对我来说,这甚至不是 Polymarket 有趣的最佳例子。所以让我们来看另一个例子:7 月份委内瑞拉的选举。选举结束后的第二天,我记得眼角余光看到有人在抗议委内瑞拉被高度操纵的选举结果。起初,我没怎么在意。我知道马杜罗已经是那些“基本上是独裁者”的人物之一,所以我想,他当然会伪造每一次选举结果以保住自己的权力,当然会有人抗议,当然抗议会失败——不幸的是,许多其他人都失败了。但后来我在 Polymarket 上滚动浏览时,看到了这个:

71164-gc2ohdgnimw.png

人们愿意投入十多万美元,打赌马杜罗在这次选举中被推翻的可能性为 23%。 现在我开始关注了。

当然,我们知道这种情况的不幸结果。最终,马杜罗确实继续掌权。然而,市场让我意识到,这一次,推翻马杜罗的企图是认真的。抗议活动规模巨大,反对派出了一个出人意料地执行良好的策略,向世界证明了选举是多么的欺诈。如果我没有收到 Polymarket 最初的信号“这次,有些事情值得关注”,我甚至不会开始关注。

你永远不应该完全相信Polymarket押注图表:如果每个人都相信押注图表,那么任何有钱的人都可以操纵押注图表,没有人敢与他们打赌。另一方面,完全相信新闻也是一个坏主意。新闻有煽情的动机,为了点击量而夸大任何事情的后果。有时候,这是合理的,有时则不然。如果你看到一篇耸人听闻的文章,但随后你去市场发现相关事件的概率根本没有改变,那么怀疑也是有道理的。或者,如果你看到市场上意外的高或低概率,或者意外的突然变化,那就是一个信号,让你通读新闻,看看是什么原因造成的。 结论:与单独阅读其中任何一种相比,通过阅读新闻和押注图表,你可以获得更多信息 。

让我们回顾一下这里发生的事情。如果你是一名博彩玩家,那么你可以向 Polymarket 押注,对你来说,这是一个博彩网站。如果你不是博彩玩家,那么你可以阅读押注图表,对你来说,这是一个新闻网站。你永远不应该完全相信押注图表,但我个人已经将阅读押注图表作为我信息收集工作流程中的一个步骤(与传统媒体和社交媒体一起),它帮助我更有效地获取更多信息。

信息金融 更广泛的意义
现在,我们进入重要部分:预测选举结果只是第一个应用。更广泛的概念是,你可以使用金融作为一种协调激励机制的方式,以便为观众提供有价值的信息。现在,一个自然的反应是:难道所有金融从根本上来说不是都与信息有关吗? 不同的参与者会做出不同的买卖决策,因为他们对未来会发生什么有不同的看法(除了个人需求,如风险偏好和对冲愿望),你可以通过阅读市场价格来推断出很多关于世界的知识。

对我来说,信息金融就是这样,但结构上是正确的。与软件工程中结构上正确的概念类似,信息金融是一门学科,它要求你 (i) 从你想知道的事实开始,然后 (ii) 刻意设计一个市场,以最佳方式从市场参与者那里获取该信息。

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信息金融是一个三边市场:投注者做出预测,读者阅读预测。市场将对未来的预测作为公共物品输出(因为这是它被设计的目的)。

预测市场就是一个例子:你想知道未来会发生的某个具体事实,所以你设立了一个市场让人们押注这个事实。另一个例子是决策市场:你想知道根据某个指标 M,决策 A 和决策 B 哪个会产生更好的结果。为了实现这一点,你设立了条件市场:你要求人们押注 (i) 会选择哪个决策,(ii) 如果选择决策 A,则 得到M 的值,否则为零,(iii) 如果选择决策 B,则得到 M 的值,否则为零。有了这三个变量,你就可以确定市场是否认为决策 A 或决策 B 对得到 M 的值更有利。

88092-lu5oyr4lose.png

我预计,未来十年将推动信息金融发展的一项技术是AI(无论是大模型还是未来的技术)。这是因为信息金融的许多最有趣的应用都与“微观”问题有关:数百万个小型市场,这些市场中的决策单独来看影响相对较小。实际上,交易量低的市场通常无法有效运作:对于经验丰富的参与者来说,花时间进行详细分析只是为了获得几百美元的利润是没有意义的,许多人甚至认为,如果没有补贴,这样的市场根本无法运作,因为除了最庞大和最轰动的问题之外,没有足够多的幼稚交易者让经验丰富的交易者从中获利。AI完全改变了这一等式,这意味着即使在交易量为 10 美元的市场上,我们也有可能获得相当高质量的信息。即使需要补贴,每个问题的补贴数额也变得非常实惠。

**信息金融需要人类的蒸馏(distilled)
判断**
假设你有一个值得信赖的人工判断机制,并且该机制具有整个社区信任它的合法性,但做出判断需要很长时间和高成本。但是,你希望以低成本实时访问该“昂贵机制”的至少一个近似副本。以下是Robin Hanson 提出的你可以做的事情的想法:每次你需要做出决定时,你都会建立一个预测市场,预测如果调用该昂贵机制,该机制将对决定做出什么结果。你让预测市场运行,并投入少量资金来补贴做市商。

99.99% 的时间里,你实际上并不会调用昂贵的机制:也许你会“撤销交易”并返还每个人的投入,或者你只是给每个人零,或者你看看平均价格是否更接近 0 或 1 并将其视为基本事实。0.01% 的时间 - 可能是随机的,可能是针对交易量最大的市场,可能是两者的结合 - 你实际上会运行昂贵的机制,并据此补偿参与者。

这为你提供了一个可信、中立 、快速且廉价的“蒸馏版本”,该版本是你原来高度可信但成本极高的机制(使用“蒸馏”一词类比 LLM 中的“蒸馏distilled”)。随着时间的推移,这种蒸馏机制大致反映了原始机制的行为 - 因为只有帮助实现该结果的参与者才能赚钱,而其他人则会赔钱。

92954-pf7sr02cvw.png

可能的预测市场 + 社区笔记组合的模型。

这不仅适用于社交媒体,也适用于 DAO。DAO的一个主要问题是,决策数量太多,大多数人都不愿意参与其中,这导致要么广泛使用委托,存在代议制民主中常见的中心化和委托代理失灵的风险,要么容易受到攻击。如果 DAO 中实际投票很少发生,大多数事情都由预测市场决定,由人类和AI结合预测投票结果,那么这种 DAO 可能会运行良好。

正如我们在决策市场的例子中所看到的,信息金融蕴含着许多解决去中心化治理中重要问题的潜在路径,关键在于市场与非市场的平衡:市场是“引擎”,其他一些非金融化的信任机制是“方向盘”。

信息金融的其他用例
个人代币——诸如Bitclout(现为 deso)、friend.tech等许多为每个人创建代币并使其易于投机的项目——是我称之为“原始信息金融”的一类。他们故意为特定变量(即对一个人未来声望的期望)创造市场价格,但价格所揭示的确切信息过于模糊,并且受制于反身性和泡沫动态。有可能创建此类协议的改进版本,并通过更加谨慎地考虑代币的经济设计(尤其是其最终价值来自何处)来解决人才发现等重要问题。Robin Hanson的声望期货理念是这里的一种可能的最终状态。

广告——最终的“昂贵但值得信赖的信号”是你是否会购买产品。基于该信号的信息金融可用于帮助人们确定要购买什么。

科学同行评审——科学界一直存在“复现危机”,即某些著名结果在某些情况下已成为民间智慧的一部分,但最终却无法在新研究中再现。我们可以尝试通过预测市场来确定需要重新检查的结果。在重新检查之前,这样的市场还会让读者快速估计他们应该在多大程度上信任任何特定结果。这种想法的实验已经完成,到目前为止似乎取得了成功。

公共物品资助——以太坊使用的公共物品资助机制的主要问题之一是其“人气竞赛”性质。每个贡献者都需要在社交媒体上开展自己的营销活动才能获得认可,而那些没有能力做到这一点或天生具有更多“背景”角色的贡献者很难获得大量资金。一个有吸引力的解决方案是尝试跟踪整个依赖关系图:对于每个积极结果,哪些项目对其贡献了多少,然后对于每个项目,哪些项目对其贡献了多少,等等。这种设计的主要挑战是找出边缘的权重,使其能够抵抗操纵。毕竟,这种操纵一直在发生。蒸馏的人类判断机制可能会有所帮助。

结论
这些想法已经被理论化了很长时间:关于预测市场甚至决策市场的最早著作已有几十年历史,而金融理论的类似论述则更为古老。然而,我认为,当前十年提供了一个独特的机会,主要原因如下:

信息金融解决了人们实际上存在的信任问题。这个时代的一个共同担忧是缺乏知识(更糟糕的是缺乏共识),不知道在政治、科学和商业环境中应该信任谁。信息金融应用可以帮助成为解决方案的一部分。

我们现在有了可扩展的区块链作为基础。直到最近,费用还太高,无法真正实现这些想法。现在,它们不再太高了。

AI作为参与者。当信息金融必须依靠人类参与每个问题时,它相对难以发挥作用。AI极大地改善了这种情况,即使在小规模的问题上也能实现有效的市场。许多市场可能会有AI和人类参与者的组合,特别是当特定问题的数量突然从小变为大时。

为了充分利用这个机会,我们应该超越仅仅预测选举,探索信息金融还能为我们带来什么。

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DavidDog
昨天 17:04

Disney made a smart choice’
Despite the comparisons, Abu Dhabi isn’t positioning itself as a direct rival to Orlando — it’s aiming to be something more. The emirate sees its theme parks as part of a bigger portfolio of attractions, alongside cultural landmarks, luxury hotels, pristine beaches, and desert adventures.
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A 15-minute drive from Yas Island, Saadiyat Island is home to the Louvre Abu Dhabi, a franchised outpost of the famous Paris art museum, which welcomed 1.4 million visitors last year, 84% from abroad. The Guggenheim Abu Dhabi and Zayed National Museum are both under construction, adding to a cultural district that will be one of the region’s most concentrated hubs of art and heritage.

“Abu Dhabi’s unique appeal lies in the diversity of our tourism offering,” Al Geziry added. “For thrill-seekers, we have record-breaking roller coasters and dune bashing in the desert. For culture lovers, historic sites like Al Ain Oasis and institutions like the Saadiyat museums. And for luxury travelers, world-class dining, private island resorts, and high-end shopping.

“Where else can you start your day under the Louvre’s iconic rain-of-light dome and end it in the immersive, story-driven worlds of Warner Bros. World or Ferrari World?”
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Still, not everyone is convinced that Disney’s expansion into the Middle East is a sure bet.

“The region has seen its share of false starts,” says Dennis Speigel, founder of the International Theme Park Services consultancy, comparing it to neighboring Dubai’s patchy record with theme park expansion ambitions in the mid-2010s. “Several of them struggled for profitability in their first decade.”

Related article
Saadiyat Cultural District in Abu Dhabi is set to become one of the world’s preeminent arts and culture hubs, with one of the highest concentrations of cultural institutions globally. But the area isn’t just for art connoisseurs. Explore what to do in the new district, from iconic museums to luxurious beach days to decadent dining options.
You can walk between the Louvre and the Guggenheim in this new art district

Spiegel believes Abu Dhabi is different. “Disney made a smart choice. The infrastructure, safety, and existing leisure developments create an ideal entry point,” he told CNN earlier this year. “It’s a much more controlled and calculated move.”

Under its Tourism Strategy 2030, Abu Dhabi aims to grow annual visitors from 24 million in 2023 to more than 39 million by the end of the decade. With Disneyland as a centerpiece, those targets may well be surpassed. The city’s population has already grown from 2.7 million in 2014 to more than 4.1 million today, a reflection of its rising profile as a regional hub.

Yas Island alone has been transformed in the space of a decade from a largely undeveloped stretch of sand to a self-contained resort destination, complete with golf courses, marinas, a mall, more than 160 restaurants, and a cluster of high-end hotels.

Orlando’s head start remains formidable — it still offers multiple Disney and Universal parks, has decades of brand loyalty, and an infrastructure built to handle tens of millions of tourists annually.

But Abu Dhabi is catching up fast. Its combination of frictionless travel, year-round comfort, cutting-edge attractions, and a cultural scene that adds depth to the experience gives Abu Dhabi its own unique selling point, potentially offering a model for the next generation of theme park capital.

WEEX 唯客

KeithFub
昨天 12:24

Disney made a smart choice’
Despite the comparisons, Abu Dhabi isn’t positioning itself as a direct rival to Orlando — it’s aiming to be something more. The emirate sees its theme parks as part of a bigger portfolio of attractions, alongside cultural landmarks, luxury hotels, pristine beaches, and desert adventures.
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A 15-minute drive from Yas Island, Saadiyat Island is home to the Louvre Abu Dhabi, a franchised outpost of the famous Paris art museum, which welcomed 1.4 million visitors last year, 84% from abroad. The Guggenheim Abu Dhabi and Zayed National Museum are both under construction, adding to a cultural district that will be one of the region’s most concentrated hubs of art and heritage.

“Abu Dhabi’s unique appeal lies in the diversity of our tourism offering,” Al Geziry added. “For thrill-seekers, we have record-breaking roller coasters and dune bashing in the desert. For culture lovers, historic sites like Al Ain Oasis and institutions like the Saadiyat museums. And for luxury travelers, world-class dining, private island resorts, and high-end shopping.

“Where else can you start your day under the Louvre’s iconic rain-of-light dome and end it in the immersive, story-driven worlds of Warner Bros. World or Ferrari World?”
http://trips45.cc
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Still, not everyone is convinced that Disney’s expansion into the Middle East is a sure bet.

“The region has seen its share of false starts,” says Dennis Speigel, founder of the International Theme Park Services consultancy, comparing it to neighboring Dubai’s patchy record with theme park expansion ambitions in the mid-2010s. “Several of them struggled for profitability in their first decade.”

Related article
Saadiyat Cultural District in Abu Dhabi is set to become one of the world’s preeminent arts and culture hubs, with one of the highest concentrations of cultural institutions globally. But the area isn’t just for art connoisseurs. Explore what to do in the new district, from iconic museums to luxurious beach days to decadent dining options.
You can walk between the Louvre and the Guggenheim in this new art district

Spiegel believes Abu Dhabi is different. “Disney made a smart choice. The infrastructure, safety, and existing leisure developments create an ideal entry point,” he told CNN earlier this year. “It’s a much more controlled and calculated move.”

Under its Tourism Strategy 2030, Abu Dhabi aims to grow annual visitors from 24 million in 2023 to more than 39 million by the end of the decade. With Disneyland as a centerpiece, those targets may well be surpassed. The city’s population has already grown from 2.7 million in 2014 to more than 4.1 million today, a reflection of its rising profile as a regional hub.

Yas Island alone has been transformed in the space of a decade from a largely undeveloped stretch of sand to a self-contained resort destination, complete with golf courses, marinas, a mall, more than 160 restaurants, and a cluster of high-end hotels.

Orlando’s head start remains formidable — it still offers multiple Disney and Universal parks, has decades of brand loyalty, and an infrastructure built to handle tens of millions of tourists annually.

But Abu Dhabi is catching up fast. Its combination of frictionless travel, year-round comfort, cutting-edge attractions, and a cultural scene that adds depth to the experience gives Abu Dhabi its own unique selling point, potentially offering a model for the next generation of theme park capital.

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